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The encyclopedia · Engineering & Operations · Operational decision · 2021–2024

Volkswagen used Monte Carlo plus a knapsack model to choose supplier fixes.

VW Group Logistics combined Monte Carlo simulation with a knapsack model to pick which suppliers to develop, cutting disruption-driven extra tours.

Volkswagen Group

the move

Volkswagen Group Logistics pulls parts from many suppliers, so a disruption at one can force extra tours to keep plants supplied.

Researchers combined a Monte Carlo simulation of disruption effects across the supplier network with a knapsack model that allocates supplier-development measures to reduce the resulting extra-tour cost.

The approach was published as an application using real Volkswagen data on 18 less-than-truckload networks.

why it works

  • Disruption in one supplier raises cost across the network
  • Monte Carlo simulates the knock-on effects of a failure
  • A knapsack model picks the few fixes with the biggest effect
  • Studied on 18 real Volkswagen less-than-truckload networks
the payoffModel disruption risk to pick which suppliers to developclever

what transfers

When you cannot fix every supplier, simulate the disruption risk of the network and let a knapsack model choose the few improvements that most reduce extra cost.

what came after

The method gives Volkswagen a systematic way to target supplier-development dollars at the network points where they most reduce disruption cost, rather than treating each supplier separately.

references

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same kind of clever