United's vaccine sweepstakes drew 400k entrants and 100k MileagePlus sign-ups in 48 hours

In early 2021 United Airlines wanted travelers back in seats and vaccinated, but rejected mandates. The obvious move — a few thousand bonus miles for everyone who proved a shot — was vetoed from inside the marketing sciences group: Luc Bondar, MileagePlus president, crashed an executive meeting to argue for 'an approach that's very aligned with behavioral science.' United instead ran a sweepstakes: prove you're vaccinated, join MileagePlus, and you could win a year of travel for two in first class.

Within 48 hours United counted over 400,000 entrants and more than 100,000 new MileagePlus sign-ups, with a significant share plausibly vaccinating after the announcement. The pattern matched state lotteries: in Ohio, Governor Mike DeWine dangled five $1 million prizes and full-ride teen scholarships, and after weeks of 25 percent weekly declines, vaccinations among Ohioans 16 and up rose 49 percent. As Richard Thaler put it, people value lottery tickets far above expected value — 'lotteries are fun.'

A jackpot beats a small certain reward when you can't pay everyone and can't mandate

A certain reward costs real money per head and is instantly forgotten; a jackpot costs little and generates coverage — the WIRED writeup itself was the marketing working.

Lotteries target the ambivalent middle — people for whom the shot is a minor hassle — not committed refusers, matching 'reason-based choice': people need an excuse to act.

Entry required proof of vaccination and MileagePlus enrollment, so each nudge also acquired a loyalty member; public-health goal and business goal shared one mechanism.

When compliance is voluntary, structure beats size: a low-probability, high-value prize moves more people than a small guaranteed payout — and the entry mechanism can carry a second business goal.

Bondar read the coverage itself as evidence the sweepstakes 'got it right.' Cash-prize lotteries in about half a dozen states, including Ohio, California and Oregon, produced similar vaccination upticks. United had not yet audited entrants' vaccine-card dates when the article ran, so the enrollment surge is company-reported and directional rather than independently verified.